By Jo Avis
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Extra resources for CIMA Revision Cards: Decision Management (CIMA Revision Cards)
Time Value of Money – Can be incorporated to refine the model Assumes risk neutrality – In the above example Project A had a lower EV, but less variability in the potential outcomes and a higher ‘low’ outcome. Attitude to risk would affect the investor’s choice Sensitivity – The probabilities used are subjective estimates and changes in them may impact the decision made Oversimplification – In reality, it is unlikely that any project will have only a few discrete outcomes Obtaining better quality estimates should improve the decision-making process The value of that perfect information is the increase in the expected value of the project, once the information is made available 45 ————————————————————————————————————————— Risk and Uncertainty Value of perfect information So, the improvement in EV which can be obtained by paying for the research is £53,000 À £47,000 ¼ £6,000.
Strategy A will earn £45,000 (high demand) or £20,000 (low demand). Strategy B will earn £75,000 or £5,000. The problem can be shown on a decision tree. Strategy B has the highest EV and should be adopted. 44 ————————————————————————————————————————— –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Risk and Uncertainty Decision trees Other factors to consider 1. 2. Example If, in the previous example, a market research company could be employed to predict whether demand for the products would be high or low.
20 x1 100 Feasible region 80 Constraints 60 K x2 ! 2x1 Products A and B must be manufactured in the ratio 2 : 7 7x1 ¼ 2x2 A,B,C,D,E - extreme points 40 20 A E B C D 20 40 x2 60 80 100 27 ————————————————————————————————————————— Linear Programming Slack and surplus The optimal solution can be used to determine which of the constraints are binding. Insert the amounts to be produced of each unit into each constraint Surplus is concerned with ‘greater than or equal to’ constraints Production > Minimum required ) surplus created Example Where a constraint is binding, obtaining more of it would increase contribution Optimal solution is 10u of x, and 28u of x2 For constraint 3x1 þ 10x2 330, insert the solution: 3(10) þ 10(28) ¼ 310 Slack/surplus can then be calculated 330 À 310 ¼ 20 slack Slack is concerned with ‘less than or equal to’ constraints Usage < Amount available ) slack available 28 ————————————————————————————————————————— ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Linear Programming Shadow prices and opportunity costs Definition Shadow price is the increase in value that one extra unit of a limiting resource would create.
CIMA Revision Cards: Decision Management (CIMA Revision Cards) by Jo Avis