By Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

ISBN-10: 0300169698

ISBN-13: 9780300169690

Drawing on fundamental resource fabric and interviews with statisticians and different scientists, "The concept that will no longer Die" is the riveting account of ways a likely uncomplicated theorem ignited one of many maximum medical controversies of all time. Bayes' rule seems to be an easy, one-line theorem: by way of updating our preliminary ideals with target new info, we get a brand new and enhanced trust. To its adherents, it truly is a chic assertion approximately studying from event. To its competitors, it truly is subjectivity run amok. within the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for normal readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this arguable theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She strains its discovery by means of an novice mathematician within the 1740s via its improvement into approximately its sleek shape through French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She unearths why revered statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for one hundred fifty years - while that practitioners depended on it to resolve crises related to nice uncertainty and scanty details, even breaking Germany's Enigma code in the course of global warfare II, and explains how the appearance of off-the-shelf machine know-how within the Nineteen Eighties proved to be a game-changer. this present day, Bayes' rule is used in all places from DNA interpreting to native land safeguard. "The conception that may no longer Die" is a shiny account of the generations-long dispute over one of many maximum breakthroughs within the background of utilized arithmetic and statistics.

**Reviews:**

"If you're now not pondering like a Bayesian, might be you want to be."—John Allen Paulos, ny instances booklet Review

(John Allen Paulos ny instances publication Review)

"A masterfully researched story of human fight and accomplishment . . . . Renders puzzling mathematical debates digestible and vibrant for even the main lay of audiences."—Michael Washburn, Boston Globe

(Michael Washburn Boston Globe)

“Well recognized in statistical circles, Bayes’s Theorem used to be first given in a posthumous paper through the English clergyman Thomas Bayes within the mid-eighteenth century. McGrayne offers a desirable account of the fashionable use of this lead to concerns as assorted as cryptography, insurance, the research of the relationship among smoking and melanoma, RAND, the id of the writer of sure papers within the Federalist, election forecasting and the quest for a lacking H-bomb. the overall reader will get pleasure from her effortless sort and how during which she has effectively illustrated using as a result of the top significance in medical work.”— Andrew I. Dale, writer of A background of Inverse likelihood From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson and so much Honorable Remembrance: The existence and paintings of Thomas Bayes

(Andrew I. Dale 2010-08-19)

“Compelling, fast paced analyzing choked with full of life characters and anecdotes. . . .A nice story.” —Robert E. Kass, Carnegie Mellon University

(Robert E. Kass)

"Makes the speculation come alive. . .enjoyable. . .densely packed and interesting, . . .very obtainable. . .an admirable task of giving a voice to the rankings of well-known and non-famous humans and information who contributed, for strong or for worse."—Significance Magazine

(Significance Magazine)

"A very compelling documented account. . .very fascinating reading."—Jose Bernardo, Valencia record Blog

(Jose Bernardo Valencia checklist Blog)

"To have crafted a page-turner out of the heritage of information is a magnificent feat. If in simple terms lectures at college were this racy."—New Scientist

(New Scientist)

“The thought that might now not Die is an impressively researched, rollicking story of the triumph of a robust mathematical tool.”—Andrew Robinson, Nature Vol. 475

(Andrew Robinson Nature Vol. 475 2011-07-28)

"A vigorous, enticing old account...McGrayne describes actuarial, enterprise, and armed forces makes use of of the Bayesian strategy, together with its program to settle the disputed authorship of 12 of the Federalist Papers, and its use to attach cigarette smoking and lung cancer...All of this can be complete via compelling, fast-moving prose...The reader can't aid yet take pleasure in studying approximately a number of the extra gossipy episodes and oversized personalities."—Choice

(Choice)

“McGrayne is the sort of solid author that she makes this imprecise conflict gripping for the final reader.”—Engineering and know-how Magazine

(Engineering and expertise Magazine)

"McGrayne explains [it] beautifully...Top vacation reading."—The Australian

(The Australian)

"Engaging....Readers might be surprised on the influence that Bayes' rule has had in diversified fields, in addition to through its rejection through too many statisticians....I was once pointed out, statistically talking, as what's known as a frequentist...But examining McGrayne's publication has made me decided to attempt, once more, to grasp the intricacies of Bayesian statisics. i'm convinced that different readers will suppose the same."—The Lancet

(The Lancet)

"Thorough study of the subject material coupled with flowing prose, a magnificent set of interviews with Bayesian statisticians, and an exceptionally enticing type in telling the non-public tales of the few nonconformist heroes of the Bayesian school."—Sam Behseta, Chance

(Sam Behseta Chance)

"A interesting and fascinating tale."—Mathematical organization of the US Reviews

(Mathematical organization of the United States Reviews)

"For the coed who's being uncovered to Bayesian records for the 1st time, McGrayne's publication offers a wealth of illustrations to whet his or her urge for food for extra. it's going to develop and deepen the sphere of reference of the extra specialist statistician, and the final reader will locate an comprehensible, well-written, and engaging account of a systematic box of significant significance today."—Andrew I. Dale, Notices of the yankee Mathematical Society

(Andrew I. Dale Notices of the yank Mathematical Society)

"A very attractive booklet that statisticians, probabilists, and heritage buffs within the mathematical sciences should still enjoy."—David Agard, CryptologIA

(David Agard CryptologIA)

"Delightful ... [and] McGrayne supplies a good synopsis of the elemental improvement of chance and statistics by means of Laplace."—Scott L. Zeger of Johns Hopkins, Physics this present day

(Physics at the present time Scott L. Zeger)

“Superb.”—Andrew Hacker, long island assessment of Books

(Andrew Hacker manhattan assessment of Books)